LinkedInThe future supply task cannot be forecast – it can still be planned. How multi-scenario analyses reveal robust expansion paths.
A scenario is an assumption, not a plan
Heat pumps, charging infrastructure, distributed generation and storage develop very differently from region to region. Anyone basing target grid planning on a single projection is planning against a future that will most likely not materialise in that form. The question is therefore not which scenario is the right one, but which measures remain sensible across many plausible developments.
Multi-scenario analyses turn the perspective around: instead of one expansion path, a bundle of paths is calculated across time steps and supply tasks. What becomes visible above all is which sections of the grid reach their limits in almost every scenario – and which measures would only be needed in isolated edge cases.
For the investment decision, exactly this distinction is what counts: robust measures are brought forward, while scenario-specific measures are kept as options and only triggered once the corresponding signals appear.